ICJ to Deliver Genocide Ruling Against Myanmar on November 19, But Analysts Warn Justice Alone Cannot Stop the Violence

The International Court of Justice will deliver its final ruling in The Gambia's genocide case against Myanmar on November 19, nearly a decade after the 2017 military clearance operations that drove hundreds of thousands of Rohingya into Bangladesh. Analysts warn that while a ruling against Myanmar would set a vital legal precedent, it will not stop the violence that continues to endanger Rohingya civilians today.

Photo Source: ZUMAPRESS/M.R.I Hasan

THE HAGUE, Netherlands — On November 19, the International Court of Justice (ICJ) will deliver its judgment in the genocide case brought by The Gambia against Myanmar in 2019. For the Rohingya, the decision represents a long-awaited moment in the pursuit of justice for decades of persecution, particularly the Myanmar military’s 2017 crackdown that forced hundreds of thousands to flee to Bangladesh.

Nearly nine years later, accountability remains limited, and violence against Rohingya communities continues. According to Su Mon, Asia-Pacific Senior Analyst at the conflict monitoring organisation ACLED, Rohingya people continue to face arbitrary detention, movement restrictions, extortion and other abuses. ACLED has recorded more than 100 targeted arrests of Rohingya since the 2021 military coup.

Civilians Caught in Rakhine's Conflict

The conflict in Rakhine State has created new dangers for civilians. In 2024, as fighting intensified between the Myanmar military and the Arakan Army (AA), Rohingya communities were caught in the middle.

On August 5, 2024, hundreds of Rohingya fleeing violence near Maungdaw reportedly died in drone and artillery attacks near the Naf River. The incident, widely reported by human rights organisations and media outlets, has raised serious concerns about the protection of civilians and accountability for alleged abuses by the Arakan Army.

Reports of abuses against Rohingya continued in 2025, including allegations of forced recruitment, arbitrary detention, movement restrictions and violence in areas under Arakan Army control. Meanwhile, military airstrikes and artillery attacks have continued to threaten civilian lives across Rakhine State.

Su Mon said the insecurity, restrictions and humanitarian crisis make a safe, voluntary and dignified return for Rohingya refugees increasingly difficult. Communities across Rakhine also face food shortages, limited humanitarian assistance and economic hardship.

What Can the ICJ Judgment Achieve?

The ICJ may find Myanmar responsible for violations of the Genocide Convention and could order measures such as reparations or steps to prevent further violations. However, the judgment will not automatically bring justice to individual victims or end the ongoing conflict.

Su Mon noted that enforcing any ruling would depend heavily on international cooperation, including action by the UN Security Council, where political divisions could create significant obstacles.

Nevertheless, the judgment could establish an important legal precedent, strengthen demands for accountability and increase pressure on the international community to protect the Rohingya.

Beyond the Courtroom

For Rohingya refugees, November 19 is about more than a legal decision. It is about recognition, justice and the hope of one day returning home safely.

A judgment cannot bring back those who were killed, restore destroyed communities or immediately end the suffering of refugees living in camps in Bangladesh. Nor can it resolve the ongoing insecurity in Rakhine State.

But it could mark an important step towards holding Myanmar accountable and ensuring that the suffering of the Rohingya is not forgotten.

As Su Mon warned, without sustained international action and accountability, Rohingya people risk remaining trapped in a cycle of violence, displacement and statelessness.

The judgment will be delivered on November 19. The real test will be whether the international community acts on it.

Based on analysis by Su Mon, Asia-Pacific Senior Analyst at ACLED, November 13, 2026.